Through its troop deployments, Türkiye is messaging Dbeibeh not to attack militia-held installations, but Ankara is also working with the rival government in eastern Libya to secure its interests in the eastern Mediterranean.
As September began, Libya's fractured post-Qadhafi political architecture stood at the precipice of renewed armed conflict as the UN-backed, Tripoli-based administration (Government of National Unity, GNU) of Prime Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh sought to exert a monopoly of armed force in western Libya. Past post-Qadhafi armed conflicts in the country have pitted the Tripoli administration against a competing power center based in eastern Libya, dominated by strongman General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA). Since Haftar's failed 2019 offensive to conquer Tripoli and unify the country, a succession of United Nations mediators has sought, without success, to broker an agreement to combine the rival administrations into a central interim government that would hold elections for a national parliament and presidency. However, political leaders in western and eastern Libya have repeatedly thwarted the UN efforts, in large part because a unification of Libya's governing structure would inevitably require some leaders to relinquish their authority.
The current threats of violence appear confined mainly to western Libya, where a variety of leaders and factions are competing for power in Tripoli. Dbeibeh calculates that marginalizing armed challengers to his administration will garner him additional support from outside powers and potentially position him to emerge as the leader of a united Libya. Consolidating his control over all armed forces in western Libya might also enhance Tripoli's ability to ward off another offensive from Haftar's LNA, which is benefiting from a Russian redeployment of its military assets in Syria -- where Russia seems to be no longer welcome. Dbeibeh and his allies suspect that the militias around Tripoli might potentially assist a future attempt by Haftar to oust Dbeibeh and unify the country by force. However, should Dbeibeh prevail over his western Libya rivals, his leverage to resist any UN-led settlement that requires him to yield office will also increase, further complicating UN efforts to unify Libya's political structure.
The current unrest appears to represent a revival of tensions that led to deadly armed clashes in and around Tripoli in May, in which several civilians were killed in the crossfire. As was the case in May, the tensions centered on Dbeibeh's intent to disband the militias forcibly. The proximate conflict, which has sparked competing military maneuvers and at least one clash last week, centers on Dbeibeh's insistence that a key militia, the Special Deterrence Force (synonymous with the "Radaa Group"), yield to state authorities' control of sensitive facilities in Tripoli, including Mitiga prison and airport. The prison is said to hold, among other inmates, members of al-Qaeda and ISIS. Tensions have escalated in recent days as Dbeibeh ordered loyalist forces from Misurata, east of the capital, and from Gharyan to the south, to advance on Mitiga. Reflecting a broader power struggle, the Special Deterrence Force/Radaa Group is aligned with another Tripoli leadership body, the Presidential Council, which was established under a 2015 political agreement to serve as Libya's head of state and command its armed forces. In practice, the Council has acquired little authority, and it is seeking to elevate its influence relative to Dbeibeh's administration, whose formal mandate expired in late 2021. Dbeibeh argues his mandate did not expire because UN-backed national elections scheduled for December 2021 -- and which would have abolished his separate administration -- were cancelled.
UN officials have been nervously watching the escalating tensions and military maneuvers in western Libya. On Saturday, the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) warned that the sudden movement of troops and heavy weapons could trigger new violence in Libya's capital. It stated the situation poses "potential harm" to civilians. UN officials have urged restraint and a return to dialogue between Dbeibeh's defense ministry and the militias he is trying to constrain. UNSMIL added that any new conflict risks not only the safety of the capital but also the potential for violence to spread across the country, "leading to a 'lose-lose' war that would critically endanger civilians." The UN's warnings appeared well-founded when, on Tuesday, a suicide attacker detonated a vehicle full of explosives at the main gate of the defense ministry's 444th Brigade's headquarters in Bani Walid.
Experts assess that additional pressure from outside powers, as well as from civilian leaders, might hold off an armed conflict. The Saturday UNSMIL statement noted a political dialogue among the contending factions on new security arrangements had "shown progress since June," but that the recent military movements risk derailing those efforts. Libyan sources said that mediation was underway to dissuade Dbeibah from steps that could trigger confrontation in Tripoli, with both domestic and international actors pressing him to exercise restraint. The so-called "5+5 Joint Military Committee" -- a body set up to de-escalate military tensions after Haftar's failed 2019 offensive -- urged all armed units to return to their designated bases. The Committee called on all sides to refrain from unilateral actions and uphold ceasefire obligations, describing them as essential to protecting civilians and sustaining the political process.
UN officials are also expecting Türkiye to use its extensive leverage on all factions in western Libya to de-escalate tensions. Ankara is the leading supporter and weapons supplier of the Tripoli government, but it has also armed the militia units Dbeibeh is trying to constrain. The militias were instrumental in turning back Haftar's 2019 offensive, and Ankara continues to see irregular forces as integral to Tripoli's ability to deter another push by Haftar on the capital. Some Turkish troops have been based at Mitiga Airport to help secure the base and the prison there. Ankara has rebuffed Dbeibeh's insistence that the Turkish forces depart Mitiga, a withdrawal that would render the militias at Mitiga vulnerable. Sources in Tripoli report that Turkish forces continue their routine activity inside the base -- a clear message from Ankara to Dbeibah not to storm Mitiga Airport.
But, aside from trying to deter Dbeibeh from using force against militias at Mitiga, Turkish officials do not appear actively engaged in diplomacy with the various factions in western Libya to try to de-escalate tensions there. Turkish officials have been focused on engaging Haftar and his allies in Benghazi in an effort to diversify Ankara's alliances in Libya and promote Turkish strategic interests in the eastern Mediterranean. Haftar is reportedly set to visit Türkiye later in September, providing Turkish leaders with an opportunity to lobby him to urge the eastern Libyan House of Representatives (HoR, parliament) to ratify the 2019 maritime agreement between Türkiye and the GNU. A ratification by the HoR would bring the maritime deal into force. Greece and Egypt oppose that agreement as too favorable to Türkiye and an infringement on the separate 2020 maritime deal between Greece and Egypt.
The UN's warnings, dialogue among Libyan factions, and Ankara's efforts to deter a military move by Dbeibeh all face significant hurdles in the face of the Tripoli Prime Minister's determination to consolidate his authority in the west. In an interview with Libya's al-Ahrar TV channel published Monday, Dbeibeh stressed: "We are continuing our security plan. We will not back down from eliminating militias and armed formations. Whoever does not want war to be declared against them must abide by the state, its institutions and laws." He explained the militias had refused offers to join the formal military institutions, and he characterized them as "criminal gangs" whose insistence on remaining autonomous constituted a "coup against the state..." Dbeibeh claimed the militias were better armed than government forces, including operating combat aircraft, and he accused militia leaders of using their armed formations to "blackmail official institutions." Dbeibeh stated the government's policy is clear and that "all ports and airports will be affiliated with the relevant state institutions," adding: "The time has come to take back the state, and we will not leave any airport, port or prison outside the state's control." Dbeibah's insistence on consolidating control of armed forces in western Libya, including using force if necessary, seems to justify the pessimism expressed by many global diplomats that Libya can be stabilized and unified any time soon.