Think back to 2015. Lin-Manuel Miranda and the rest of the "Hamilton" cast rocked Broadway. The Star Wars, Avengers and Jurassic Park franchises all had blockbuster hits. The iPhone 6S, with a Rose Gold option, and Apple Watch both launched. And you could grab a McDonald's 4-piece Chicken McNuggets Happy Meal at McDonald's for just $2.99.
It's now 2025. There's a new "Hamilton" lead. "Jurassic World Rebirth" is set to launch this summer, albeit without Chris Pratt. Apple is launching a budget model iPhone 16e with (gasp!) just one rear camera. It's only available in two colors, black or white. And if you or your child wants a Chicken McNuggets Happy Meal, it's going to set you back $4.99 -- an increase of 67%.
Were things better 10 years ago? That's a matter of opinion for many, but things are certainly more expensive now. And the Happy Meal stands as a prime example.
Prices overall in the U.S. have increased an average of 2.9% every year since 2015. That means $1 back in 2015 had the purchasing power of $1.33 today. Using this data and the CPI Inflation Calculator at in2013dollars.com, a $2.99 Happy Meal back in 2015 should cost just $4.01 today. That means it's overvalued by 98 cents.
But why? Several factors are at play, mostly related to operational costs.
In an open letter released in May 2024, McDonald's president Joe Erlinger outlined some of the reasons McDonald's has raised prices, specifically over the last five years. The company pointed out that, since 2019, McDonald's prices have kept pace with inflation of roughly 29% for "Food Away from Home," based on CPI data.
Since 2019, wages for employees have increased roughly 40%, according to an infographic issued by McDonald's. These increases took place to help the fast food chain remain competitive, but also as a result of minimum wage hikes in some states.
In the same infographic, McDonald's revealed that food and paper costs have risen roughly 35% since 2019.
The cost of goods is only one factor in the supply chain. Fuel costs dramatically impact the price of goods in every industry. In 2015, the average retail gasoline price was just $2 per gallon, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By 2019, gas prices rose to $2.25 per gallon, spiked at just under $3 per gallon, and then hovered around the $2.50 mark.
In February 2025, the national average for fuel costs is $3.12, with prices over $4 in Washington, California and Hawaii, according to AAA.com.
Other McDonald's menu items have not increased in price as much as the Happy Meal, according to the McDonald's infographic. For instance:
McDonald's customers also have options to choose McValue menu items to beat inflation.
So, why does the Happy Meal stand out, more than doubling in price over the past decade? It could be a result of demand. It would be more cost-effective for parents to order a McValue Meal, which includes a 4-piece Chicken McNuggets, a choice of McDouble cheeseburger or McChicken sandwich, a small fry and small beverage for the same price as a Happy Meal.
But kids want that toy.
Many parents choose fast food as a treat or last-minute option when they're too busy to cook in between children's sports practices and activities. Ultimately, it's quite often much easier to order the Happy Meal than engage in an impromptu personal finance lesson with a hungry child.