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Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar Forecast: Services PMI and Aussie GDP in Focus

By Bob Mason

Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar Forecast: Services PMI and Aussie GDP in Focus

According to the preliminary report, the Jibun Bank Services PMI increased from 49.7 in October to 50.2 in November, signaling a return to growth ( PMI > 50).

An upward revision to the Services PMI may raise investor expectations for a 25-basis point December BoJ rate hike. The services sector accounts for over 70% of Japan's GDP and is critical for inflation and BoJ policy decisions.

While the headline PMI needs consideration, investors must study the price trends. Rising costs and increased prices charged may fuel inflationary pressures, potentially supporting a more hawkish BoJ stance.

November's preliminary survey revealed rising average cost burdens, with firms increasing prices charged. The price trends and the fastest job creation rate since July supported bets on a December rate hike. Upward revisions may further bolster December policy move bets.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently underscored the importance of services sector price trends, saying,

"October is a month when service price revisions are concentrated in Japan, so we must scrutinize data carefully."

On Wednesday, investors should also monitor BoJ commentary after Governor Ueda's remarks who suggested further rate hikes are likely if economic data align with forecasts.

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