SETH BORENSTEIN

AP Science Writer

Climate change is already causing all sorts of problems on Earth, but soon it will be making a mess in orbit around the planet too, a new study finds.

MIT researchers calculated that as global warming caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas continues, it may reduce the available space for satellites in low Earth orbit by anywhere from one-third to 82% by the end of the century, depending on how much carbon pollution is spewed. That's because space will become more littered with debris as climate change lessens nature's way of cleaning it up.

Part of the greenhouse effect that warms the air near Earth's surface also cools the upper parts of the atmosphere where space starts and satellites zip around in low orbit, That cooling also makes the upper atmosphere less dense, which reduces the drag on the millions of pieces of human-made debris and satellites.

People are also reading... New businesses coming to former Bristol shopping center HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Seth Padgett is new head coach at Tazewell after successful tenure at Patrick Henry VHSL CLASS 1 BOYS BASKETBALL: David Goode, George Wythe shoot down Patrick Henry's good season, earn trip to state finals VHSL CLASS 2 GIRLS BASKETBALL: Emmah McAmis scores 3,000th career point as Wise Central reaches state finals for fourth straight year after beating Ridgeview Local baker selling bread, other treats via the honor system VHSL CLASS 1 BOYS BASKETBALL: Caywood connection has helped Patrick Henry Rebels reach new heights HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Former Lebanon coach Phillip Henley dies HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Seth Padgett makes head-coaching move from Patrick Henry to Tazewell HIGH SCHOOL GIRLS BASKETBALL: VHSL legend La'Keshia Frett finally able to welcome somebody else into 3,000-point club as Wise County Central's Emmah McAmis reaches magic number VHSL STATE SEMIFINAL PRIMER: Fantastic Final Four matchups for local VHSL teams VHSL CLASS 2 GIRLS BASKETBALL: Never doubt the toughness of Wise County Central's Abbie Jordan VHSL CLASS 2 BOYS BASKETBALL: Virginia High sees season end at Floyd County with wild scene VHSL CLASS 1 GIRLS BASKETBALL: George Wythe freshman Avery Cline keys comeback in semifinal win over Honaker VHSL CLASS 1 BASKETBALL: George Wythe's Luttrell siblings both going for state rings on Friday HIGH SCHOOL NOTES: Interim tag removed for Honaker football coach Aaron Lowe; Rural Retreat girls hoops coach Pete Fiscus retires; Abingdon gets softball transfer

That drag pulls space junk down to Earth, burning up on the way. But a cooler and less dense upper atmosphere means less space cleaning itself. That means that space gets more crowded, according to a new study in Nature Sustainability.

"We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris. There's no other way to remove debris," said study lead author Will Parker, an astrodynamics researcher at MIT. "It's trash. It's garbage. And there are millions of pieces of it."

Circling Earth are millions of pieces of debris about one-ninth of an inch and larger -- the width of two stacked pennies -- and those collide with the energy of a bullet. There are tens of thousands of plum-sized pieces of space junk that hit with the power of a crashing bus, according to The Aerospace Corp., which monitors orbital debris. That junk includes results of old space crashes and parts of rockets with most of it too small to be tracked.

There are 11,905 satellites circling Earth -- 7,356 in low orbit -- according to the tracking website Orbiting Now. Satellites are critical for communications, navigation, weather forecasting and monitoring environmental and national security issues.

"There used to be this mantra that space is big. And so we can we can sort of not necessarily be good stewards of the environment because the environment is basically unlimited," Parker said.

But a 2009 crash of two satellites created thousands of pieces of space junk. Also, NASA measurements are showing a measurable reduction of drag, so scientists now realize that that "the climate change component is really important," Parker said.

The density at 250 miles above Earth is decreasing by about 2% a decade and is likely to intensify as society pumps more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, said Ingrid Cnossen, a space weather scientist at the British Antarctic Survey who was not part of the research.

Cnossen said in an email that the new study makes "perfect sense" and is why scientists have to be aware of climate change's orbital effects "so that appropriate measures can be taken to ensure its long-term sustainability."

Be the first to know

Get local news delivered to your inbox!

Sign up! * I understand and agree that registration on or use of this site constitutes agreement to its user agreement and privacy policy.