Bhubaneswar: Pushed to the wall after the BJD's first choice Jay Dholakia joined the BJP ahead of Nuapada by-election, Naveen Patnaik has tried to pull a rabbit out of the hat by nominating Snehangini Chhuria as the party candidate for the November 11 bypoll.

What forced the regional outfit to pick the former minister by ignoring the claims of local aspirants? Will it boomerang on the party or turn out to be a masterstroke? While the jury is out on the BJD's strategy, here's a look at the plausible motives behind the party's decision:

1) Stop 'deal' narrative: Jay Dholakia entering the saffron fold within weeks of his father and BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia's death, which has necessitated the bypoll, has refuelled the BJP-BJD bonhomie theory, with many suspecting the possibility of the BJD allowing Jay to go to the ruling party as part of a possible 'deal'. The 'deal' narrative, created in the last few years especially since 2019, has done the BJD more harm than good, with the BJP benefiting more. Continuance of such a narrative while the BJD is the main Opposition party and particularly when it is readying to fight a by-election for the first time since it was ousted from power in June 2024, could deal a massive blow to Naveen and Co. By making Churia the nominee the party has attempted to slam the brakes on this narrative and send the message that it has fielded a senior party leader in the race and wants to fight with renewed vigour. Naveen's announcement that he would hit the campaign trail for two days, something he had avoided during bypolls in recent years, is an attempt to show his intent to go for a direct clash with CM Mohan Majhi, who is leading the BJP charge, and Bhakta Charan Das, the state Congress chief.

2) Prevent desertions and gain overs: Dholakia's exit has triggered an exodus of many grassroots BJD leaders and workers to the BJP; some disillusioned party men are also headed towards the Congress. In such a scenario, the BJD understandably is trying to keep its flock together. The possibility of a new candidate and local leaders getting allured into rivals' traps for pecuniary gains cannot be ruled out in a high-octane by-election. Hence, the party possibly chose 'the tried and tested' Chhuria, who enjoys the BJD top brass' confidence.

3) Quell intra-party discord: At least half a dozen aspirants, including Manoj Mishra, Bhanu Pratap Singh Majhi and Abani Joshi, were lobbying for the BJD ticket after Dholakia went the BJP way. While none of these contenders stood a real chance of winning, choosing one of them could have caused heartburn to the others. Giving the ticket to two-time Attabira MLA Chhuria, who was the party's observer for Nuapada district for four years, might serve as a compromise formula to prevent further dissension and project a united face during electioneering.

4) Women's card: Chhuria not only has a state-level leader profile being the Biju Mahila Janata Dal president and a former minister but also a grassroots connect, especially in western Odisha, having climbed the political ladder from the humble beginning of a schoolteacher. Not being a lightweight, she has the ability to take on Dholakia and Congress' Ghasiram Majhi and put up at least a face-saving show for the BJD. A woman candidate would also help the party tom-tom its women empowerment claims and possibly keep its women's vote bank from completely going to the BJP kitty courtesy the Subhadra Yojana.

5) Caste card: With Ghasiram eyeing the tribal vote, the BJD is targeting the SC voters, who have a sizable presence in the constituency. If Chhuria can capture a good portion of the SC and backward class votes, then she could at least make it a triangular contest. While winning the bypoll could be a Herculean task for Chhuria, a decent show can save the BJD the blushes.

6) 'Outsider' factor: While the candidature of Churia, a native of Padampur in Bargarh district, has immediately led rivals and critics to label her as an 'outsider', she has dismissed the tag on the ground that her maternal uncle is from Nuapada and hence she is 'Nuapada's niece'. How keenly the voters accept her remains to be seen, but the fact that Congress' Jagannath Patnaik, though not from Nuapada, had won the previous by-election the assembly constituency had seen in 1997 (following the death of Janata Dal's Ghasiram Majhi) can give the BJD some hope.

With the BJP arguably starting as favourites and the Congress aiming for a revival in political fortunes, the BJD has its task cut out at the hustings. Can Chhuria do the trick? Will Naveen rediscover his old magic? Come November 14, the electors of Nuapada will tell us all the answers. And perhaps give us an idea of the regional party's future!