TAMPA -- Their confidence brims as March beckons. USF's women have won eight in a row to move within a game of first place in the American Athletic Conference. Their defense has grown more stingy, their turnovers more scarce.
"I think as we head into the stretch run here with about a week and a half left in the season," said 25th-year coach Jose Fernandez, "everything that we want is still ahead of us."
Except, perhaps, an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.
Should the Bulls (19-8, 12-2) win the league tournament in Fort Worth, Texas, in a couple of weeks, their at-large odds become a moot point. But if they stumble in that event, they likely miss the NCAAs for the second year in a row.
Why? Because while momentum's in USF's favor, metrics are not. And the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings -- the primary tool for evaluating NCAA tourney teams -- are steeped in factors such as offensive and defensive efficiency.
For Fernandez, that's a sorer subject than the torn knee ligaments hobbling him these days.
"All it is, is protecting the (Power) Four programs," Fernandez said. "That's all it is."
A cursory look at the latest NET rankings -- where USF is 67th -- validates his point. Despite a daunting non-conference slate that Fernandez annually schedules by design, the Bulls have a better overall record and more quality wins (Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins, in NET vernacular) than some Power Four peers ranked ahead of them.
Their lone Quad 1 triumph -- a 65-56 win against then-No. 9 Duke just before Christmas -- is still one more than Missouri (64th), Auburn (57th), Florida (55th) or Stanford (48th). Of those, only Stanford and Auburn have as many Quad 3 wins (three) as the Bulls.
"Do the blind resume of 20 teams ahead of us, and don't put a name, and (compare) our resume as far as who we've played and the margin of victory and that Quad 1 (win)," Fernandez said.
"I would find it hard to believe that (an at-large bid would be denied) if we go to Dallas and somehow don't win the conference tournament, when you're sitting at around probably 24 wins. We did everything that the (selection) committee asked you to do: challenge yourself in November and December, play a great schedule."
Therein lies the other issue: USF's AAC peers didn't schedule nearly as aggressively. The Bulls' strength-of-schedule ranking (44th) according to realtimerpi.com is by far the highest in the league, where seven teams' schedules rank 120th or worse.
The AAC received only one NCAA bid last season and is projected to have only one this year. Longtime ESPN women's bracketologist Charlie Creme lists the Bulls as one of his "first four out" of the 68-team field.
"I think we're the only (conference) team that has scheduled, unfortunately, for an at-large bid," Fernandez said. "If other people don't do that, this league will continue to be a one-bid league."
Win the AAC tourney next month and it all becomes academic for the Bulls, clearly the league's hottest team at the moment.
During their eight-game streak, the Bulls are averaging only 12.9 turnovers, a noticeable reduction from their season average (14.4), and have shot at least 41% from the floor in all eight contests. Moreover, four foes have been held to fewer than 60 points during that stretch.
"I think we're doing a much better job taking care of the basketball, and I think we're doing a really good job defending," said Fernandez, whose club hosts Memphis (7-19, 5-9) on Saturday.
"If we can continue to do that, and (low-post standouts) Carla Brito and L'or (Mputu) can rebound and finish around the rim, and Mama (Dembele) and (Janette Aarnio) can be steady at the point guard spot, and those three wings (Sammie Puisis, Vittoria Blasigh and Romi Levy) can make shots, we're a good basketball team."
Contact Joey Knight at [email protected]. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls.
Despite a seemingly superior resume, USF's women remain behind several teams in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, the primary tool for evaluating teams for the NCAA Tournament that sorts the quality of wins and losses into quads:
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