The Raiders' lone primetime game of the year goes down tonight in only their second home date in six weeks. Many wondered if it would ever happen.
Monday night games can now be flexed back on to Sundays, and a showdown featuring the Raiders, currently slotted to pick No. 1 in the 2025 NFL Draft, looked like a candidate before the deadline three weeks ago. But moving games isn't always simple, as other networks can protect marquee matchups and some teams are protected from being forced to play on an extra short week. So, ESPN decided to stick it out with the original plan.
It's at least a big game for the Atlanta Falcons, now one game back in the NFC South after leading for most of the season. The Raiders assisted their plunge last week by losing to the NFC South's Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 28-13, while Atlanta dropped its fourth straight game, 42-21 at Minnesota.
Several of the best games in the five-year history of Allegiant have come as part of Monday Night Football. The Raiders will try to coax some of that magic out once again to break a nine-game losing streak.
Favorable matchup: Raiders' streaking pass rush vs. Falcons' up-and-down offensive line
This might be more like strength vs. strength if isolating for recent performance. Las Vegas' pass rush has been mediocre at best on the season but has broken out in the past two weeks. After harassing Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to the point of a near upset victory two weeks ago, the Raiders disrupted the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield just as much in Tampa Bay. They had four sacks and four more quarterback hits on Mayfield, led by another standout performance from former practice-squad edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson, who had one apiece and also batted down and intercepted a pass. Atlanta's offensive line struggled in pass protection for most of the year but has suddenly been much better. The unit moved up five spots to No. 14 last week in Pro Football Focus' offensive line rankings after giving up only three pressures and no sacks against a formidable Vikings defense. Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will surely have a plan to attack it though. He's begun using more looks where Las Vegas gets its most talented pass rushers on the field together, though this week Chaisson and former first-round pick Tyree Wilson will not have superstar Maxx Crosby (ankle) with them on the field.
Problematic matchup: Falcons running back Bijan Robinson vs. Raiders' rush defense
The Raiders' emphasis on rattling Mayfield last week may have come at the expense of their rush defense. They gave up nearly 6 yards per carry in the defeat including a season-high 90 rushing yards to Rachaad White, who had previously been slumping and losing carries to teammates. Now they face a taller task in Robinson, the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft who might be the most talented opposing running back they've faced in at least a month. He also might be entering off one of the best stretches of his career, with at least 90 yards in three of the Falcons' past four games. Atlanta ranks No. 8 in the NFL for rushing offense per the DVOA ratings. Las Vegas is No. 25 in rushing defense. Missed tackles have been a recurring problem for Las Vegas, as it sits 26th in the league with 122 on the year per PFF. Robinson rates sixth in the league with 18 broken tackles. Las Vegas' primary defensive leader, linebacker Robert Spillane, is known as a sure tackler and it might be up to him more than anyone to wrap up on Robinson when given the chance.
Gamebreaker: Quarterback Aidan O'Connell
It might be overstating it to say O'Connell potentially being in position to start against the Falcons is a miracle, but not completely. No one, including O'Connell's teammates and coaches, thought that would be possible for the second-year pro out after he was carted off with a knee injury in the third quarter of the Buccaneers loss. O'Connell's leg was placed in an air cast and Raiders coach Antonio Pierce himself hinted he was out for the year. But an MRI came back negative, and further imaging revealed O'Connell only suffered a bone bruise. His left knee remained swollen over the next week, but he worked off to the side in practice and moved around the team's Henderson facility fine. Backup Desmond Ridder will be ready to play if O'Connell is unready to go, and the Raiders promoted practice-squad rookie Carter Bradley to the active roster for the first time this season. But O'Connell will be the starter if it's at all possible against the Falcons. The Raiders need O'Connell to have the best chance to win, as Pierce has continually implied he doesn't feel like Ridder is ready after being claimed him off the Arizona Cardinals' practice squad midseason.
Big Number: 0
Raiders top receiver Jakobi Meyers doesn't have a single dropped pass on the season. Last week, he became the first NFL player in 25 years to have more than 95 targets in a season with zero drops, per the 33rd Team. It's been overshadowed by the Raiders' struggles and the record-breaking ways of rookie tight end Brock Bowers, but Meyers is having a career season in his sixth year as a professional. Over the past three games, he's hauled in 23 catches for 285 yards. That puts him at 66 catches for 743 yards on the year, and Pierce said the Raiders hoped to push him over the 1,000-yard milestone for the first time in his career over the final four regular-season games. Meyers might lack the blazing speed or big-play ability of some of his No. 1 receiver peers around the league, but few if any of them are as reliable from a route-running and ball-securing standpoint. The 28-year-old still has one year left on his contract after this season, and if the Raiders indeed select a top quarterback early in the draft, he'll have a couple solid starting point offensive weapons in Bowers and Meyers.
Best Bet (7-6): Bijan Robinson under 82.5 rushing yards
The Falcons may prioritize other players, namely fellow running back Tyler Allgeier, too strongly to give Robinson the best chance to go over this high of a number. Robinson has the ability to eclipse these sky-high lines regularly, but he doesn't always get the opportunities. The Falcons are too inconsistent with his workload and every time it appears that's changed, it feels like Robinson's chances are diminished the next game. He's had 56 touches over the past two weeks so maybe this time it's different, but history would caution against blindly assuming that's the case. The Raiders have been poor against the run, but that's partly because they've more frequently emphasized pass rush. That might be different this week given the struggles of Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has thrown six interceptions the past two weeks while looking highly uncomfortable and immobile. Las Vegas may sell out to slow Robinson even if he receives the overwhelming share of rushing attempts.