Moscow's strategy was to wait, not move an inch from its red lines, and let Western disagreements work to its advantage - And now, it seems the moment has arrived.
Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, may have declared satisfaction after discussions with the American delegation in Geneva (23/11/2025), but the reality is different. Umerov said that the US peace plan for ending the war aligns with most of Kyiv's key priorities, but the facts are stubborn and contradict him.
For four whole years, Russia repeated the exact same demands for ending the war in Ukraine: more territory in Eastern Ukraine, military limitation of Kyiv, and a ban on Kyiv's path to NATO. Now, while Washington appears divided and Europe is in a state of shock, Moscow watches with satisfaction. Trump's plan incorporates several of the Russian demands, granting the Kremlin a diplomatic victory even as it continues to press militarily on the ground.
The Wall Street Journal describes it clearly: Moscow's strategy was to wait, not move an inch from its red lines, and let the Western disagreements work to its advantage. According to the American newspaper, Moscow "remained absolutely consistent." This kind of consistency, on an international stage where the West changes position weekly, proved to be a strategic advantage of enormous importance. And now, it seems the moment has arrived.
The American 28-point plan, which Trump promoted as a "solution" for ending the war, contains:
In short, a framework that opens the way for Russia not only to victory but also to the institutionalization of its territorial and political demands. It certainly constitutes a prelude to Russian claims.
As Abbas Gallyamov, former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, notes, "if this plan is implemented, Ukraine will be left absolutely helpless against Russia."
Putin not only welcomed the plan as a "basis for discussion," but he used it as new leverage against Kyiv and Europe. Given the recent Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, he made it clear:
Moscow seems certain that time and war are working in its favor. The Kremlin has concluded that time is working against Ukraine: attrition at the front, weakening of the West, and political instability in the US and EU. Moscow believes that Ukraine can collapse. All it needs is to keep the pressure steady.
One of the most striking points of the plan is the provision for holding elections. At first glance, this looks like an element of "normalization." In practice, however, Russia can support "pro-Russian" candidates. Ukraine, allegedly respecting the rules, may need to disqualify some due to violations, and then Moscow will denounce that "the terms of the agreement were not adhered to." And then there will be a legitimate justification for restarting the war. This is a strategy that will lead Ukraine into Russian control for the first time since the Maidan coup in 2014.
The plan was presented as a fait accompli. Trump announced the draft publicly even before there was coordination with Kyiv, European allies, the Pentagon, or the State Department. This move not only caused diplomatic shock but also left the American president exposed: one day after the announcement, he began to back down, stating that the plan "is not final" and that it can be amended.
But now the question is: Will Russia accept changes? And if not, what will Trump do? It is clear that Russia is not going to accept any changes for the worse, so it will continue the special military operation.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen supposedly set three "non-negotiable red lines": Borders cannot be changed by force, Ukraine cannot be stripped militarily, and finally, it has the absolute right to choose its own path -- meaning the European one.
But here comes the great European paradox. The EU has no mechanism to enforce such positions. Every major decision requires unanimity, and Hungary is blocking almost everything. Europe's main military powers (France, Italy) are over-indebted and weak for any autonomous action.
The result? Europe shouts, but no one is afraid of its voice.
And so the process returns to the beginning: Many questions, no answers.
The Russian message is clear: "If you don't give us what we want through diplomacy, we will take it with weapons." The West, on the other hand, does not have a unified line, lacks a strong strategy, and wasted time arguing over a plan that is not yet in its final form.
The result? Russia, without changing any of its demands, is closer than ever to a peace map that looks more like a first reward for its strategy, which it has charted since 2022. The Russian leadership has made its decision. It will unilaterally impose its terms on Ukraine, whose control it wants to gain.