Social media has been going crazy with speculation about the potential for very cold temperatures and snow across parts of the South late next week.
Will it snow?
Anyone who has lived in Alabama for any length of time knows the answer to that question may not be known until the day of. Snow in the South is notoriously hard to forecast.
And there's no way of knowing if snow will be in the forecast more than a week into the future. The National Weather Service only forecasts the weather seven days in advance, and forecasters cautioned earlier this week that speculation beyond that is just that -- speculation.
There has to be just the right timing of the arrival of cold air with moisture in place. Most often the case is that the rain has moved out before the cold air arrives.
But forecasters are looking at the possibility of a long-duration spell of below-average cold in parts of the South through the middle of the month.
In fact, the National Weather Service said there's the potential for "brutally cold" temperatures affecting Alabama toward the middle of next week.
Look for colder weather to become more firmly entrenched across the state starting over the weekend.
There could be two opportunities for brushes with wintry precipitation next week. The first could arrive Sunay night into Monday morning. The second, much more speculative opportunity, could be later next week in the Thursday-Friday timeframe, beyond the weather's service's forecast period.
There's a chance some in north Alabama could have a brush with wintry precipitation on Sunday night into Monday morning as an area of low pressure moves near the region. However, the forecast was trending more toward a cold rain than snowflakes as of Wednesday morning.
It all depends on the track of the surface area of low pressure. A more northerly track means cold rain, while a southerly path could raise the chances of wintry precipitation for at least part of the state.
" ... the trajectory of this low as it tracks east remains of low confidence but potentially high impact for the Ohio River Valley south into the Tennessee Valley," the National Weather Service in Huntsville said in a Wednesday morning forecast discussion.
"Trends over the past 24 hours favor a more northward surface low track, keeping us on the warmer side of the low and thus all precipitation would be liquid rain with periods of heavy rainfall Sunday night. This system will remain the primary focus through the extended period."
But that's not the only brush with winter precipitation that Alabama could be facing. Forecasters will also be watching to see if an area of low pressure develops closer to the Gulf of Mexico later next week, possibly in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. If that were to materialize (and forecast models are split on whether it will), then there's the potential for some snow -- possibly for Alabama.
But again, it's just too early to know anything for sure. Just keep an eye on the forecast next week in case snow starts looking more likely.
What's more certain: The weather service expects temperatures to plummet next week, with highs on Tuesday only making it into the 30s in north Alabama and the 40s in south Alabama.
Here's the forecast for next Tuesday, which is the end of the weather service's forecast period:
And it could get colder than that, but just how cold is still up in the air at this point.
The six- to 10-day temperature outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (shown at the top of this post) is forecasting a 80-90 percent probability that a good part of Alabama will have below-average temperatures from Jan. 6-10 (next Monday-Friday).
A similar forecast for Alabama is also in the CPC's eight- to 14-day temperature outlook, with continued 80-90 percent probabilities for below-average temperatures for the entire state of Alabama. That outlook covers Jan. 8-14:
So colder weather looks to be likely for Alabama, but the question will be just how cold, and that isn't locked in just yet. The weather service should have a better idea about what to expect next week.
But forecasters caution that it's a good time to make sure you have all the protections you need in place for very cold temperatures over the next few weeks. The NOAA catchphrase is to protect people, pets, pipes and plants when cold weather threatens: