The New York Giants face an Atlanta Falcons team with a different starting quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. will make his inaugural NFL start in Week 16 against the Giants after the benching of Kirk Cousins. New York passed on Penix Jr. in the first round and chose Malik Nabers at sixth overall. Atlanta selected the former Washington quarterback two picks later, which, at the time, was viewed as a shock.
This game could be another massive low point for Joe Schoen and the Giants. A great performance by Penix Jr., along with another embarrassing loss that will set a franchise record of 10 consecutive -- to a quarterback the Giants passed on -- with this current quarterback situation, may just be too much for this regime to overcome.
"He can sling it. I think you go back and watch the accuracy down the field, throwing the ball down the field. He puts it in places receivers can catch it," Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen said this week. "We're going to have to do a good job making sure we defend the deep part of the field because I think he's going to take his chances throwing it, launching it. But he's got a really strong arm, good accuracy and I would say, specifically, on the deep ball."
There's a lot to appreciate about Penix Jr. He finished second in the Heisman Trophy race after he led Washington to the National Championship Game against Michigan. Washington fell 34-14, but his performance against Texas in the College Football Playoff Semifinal is discussed as one of the best single-game performances by a college quarterback during the 2023 season.
Penix Jr. led the NCAA in passing yards with 4,903, beating his previously set University of Washington single-season passing yards record. He won the Maxwell Award in 2023 and was the Comeback Player of the Year in 2022.
Here's my predraft scouting report on Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. has a true NFL arm and can throw the football into the tightest of windows. He has an excellent combination of arm strength, velocity, and deep accuracy. He does have some gunslinger in his game. He showed the ability to attack every part of the field, some areas more comfortable than others. He has beautiful throws over the middle (Texas Q3 10:35 TD), but he seemed hesitant to pull the trigger when targeting the intermediate middle areas of the field.
I love the way Penix Jr. attacks the football field, wanting to make the big play. The lefty is fearless, ripping far-hash throws with precise placement to the WR's outside shoulder. We saw many of these big-time throws against Texas in 2023 -- he had an impressive 15% Big Time Throw rate that game. That game was the best one on tape. Penix Jr. possesses a high football IQ in regards to managing the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield with good overall decision making.
His throwing mechanics can be elongated and aren't always crisp which does lead to accuracy issues on throws that appear to be layups for him, especially considering the precise nature of some of his deep passes. The injuries are difficult to overlook, but I'm also concerned about his nature under pressure. I appreciate his overall acumen and his awareness to locate blitzing threats and set protection accordingly; however, when he did face pressure (which wasn't often), he was a noticeably different quarterback.
He's a pocket passer, through and through, and an accurate one at that. He tested well athletically on his Pro Day, but we haven't seen that athletic ability translate to the football field. That doesn't mean it can't manifest in a different offensive approach on Sunday. Penix Jr. also did a solid job finding answers when the coverage was sticky; he quickly got threw his reads and lived to fight another day without suffering a catastrophic negative play. However, the personnel and spread-out nature of Washington's offense helped open space in the passing game.
Overall, Penix Jr. is one of the more interesting quarterback evaluations. He tested uber-athletically, but we rarely saw that on tape. He didn't succeed much under pressure, but he wasn't under pressure often. He's not always fundamentally sound and doesn't have a track record of playing out of structure, but has a true NFL-caliber arm with the zip and, at times, precision to somehow fit a football through a keyhole from the far-hash. At times, he can use more touch and less zip. With that arm and rare ability, it's easy to see why a team will fall in love with his upside, but there are risks.
I want to go through five Michael Penix Jr. throws that showcase what the Giants may see on Sunday.
Q1, 12:05, first-and-10 vs. Texas
Texas ran Cover-1 against Washington, and Penix Jr. delivered a phenomenal pass to Ja'lynn Polk (2), who won on the inside release before his inward stem to set up his outside break away from the single-high safety. Penix Jr. threw this football with elite accuracy to Polk's upfield shoulder, away from both defenders -- great touch with excellent timing on the longer developing route.
Penix Jr. also starts to throw this football before Polk's break outward. Polk's initial inward break and Penix's eyes held the single-high safety in place. Penix Jr. can make every throw on the football field when provided a clean pocket, and both Darnell Mooney and Drake London are exceptional assets for the 24-year-old rookie.
Q3, 10:35, first-and-10 vs. Texas
Texas aligned in quarters against Washington's 3x1 set. The strength was to the boundary, with Rome Odunze (1) on the field, outside the numbers. This is excellent recognition by Micheal Penix Jr. He caught the shot-gun snap, peaked the field safety, saw him shade outside the hash towards Odunze, and decided to test the tight window in the middle of the field.
Penix Jr. ripped a fastball with impressive velocity between the two safeties, and Jalen McMillan (11) secured the touchdown right before the field safety could undercut the pass. The play was successful due to elite timing and great velocity from Penix Jr.
Q2, 1:01, first-and-10 vs. Oregon State
Penix Jr. routinely made far-hash throws at the college level where the hashes are ten miles apart. He forced defenses to play every blade -- every inch -- of grass, and we see that in this touchdown to Odunze. I expect a similar approach with both London and Mooney if the Giants decide to play more Cover-1. As we see in the play above, Penix Jr. is patient with his eyes; he held the safety (28) in place until he was ready to throw. He confirmed the one-on-one matchup and trusted his receiver.
Q1, 00:55, first-and-10, Oregon
This quarters variation quickly turns into man coverage on the slot fade to Polk. Penix Jr. showcases his deep ball accuracy and overall arm strength from the far-hash to layer this football over the defender and right into the outstretched arms of Polk. Odunze gets the bracket treatment at the top of the screen; he earned a lot of attention from defenses. When that was the case, Penix Jr. found other answers with Polk and McMillan. The Falcons offense may look different under Penix Jr. and we could see more spread looks that will isolate receivers in one-on-one matchups. The Giants will be caught between a rock and a hard place, for their allocation of resources to shut the run down has been evident since Dexter Lawrence's injury.
Q1, 10:00, first-and-10, Utah
The Utes rotate from a Cover-3 to Cover-2 look at the snap. Penix Jr. sees the split safeties and looks at the middle-hook defenders; he does a fantastic job influencing two of them with two separate movements. He initially looks to his right, and the zone defender looks to contact and sink underneath a potential deep curl near the numbers of what turned into the No. 2 receiver at the snap. The receiver ran right into the safeties area; Utah possessed a three-over-two advantage at and outside the numbers.
Penix Jr. quickly came off that side of the field but noticed the expansion of the defender (3). That expansion created a void for the back-side cross as long as the middle-hook defender (21) did not expand to the boundary side. Right before Penix Jr. threw the football, he turned his head to the field, and No. 21 stepped toward the field, allowing the Washington receiver to run right behind him for an easy 18-yard gain.
Penix Jr. understands leverage and placement and knows how to use his eyes to manipulate defenders. This is combined with accuracy, velocity, and excellent arm strength. My pre-draft concerns about Penix Jr. were geared toward his extensive injury history. However, he has quality NFL quarterback traits, is smart, and is not shy to let it rip. The Giants could have his hands full if they fail to get any pressure on Sunday.