While the Almanac admits no forecast is perfect, it maintains its predictions often approach its traditional claim of 80 percent accuracy.
Get ready for a season of weather swings. The 2025-2026 outlook from the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a winter of contrasts across the United States -- with mild stretches for many, but plenty of surprises in store for others.
Most of the nation can expect above-average temperatures from September through November, particularly in the West. Rainfall is expected to run below normal in many regions.
Only pockets of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies are expected to be wetter than average. The Northeast, Appalachians, Ohio Valley, and Upper Midwest may experience cooler weather by late fall, which could help boost fall foliage even as rainfall remains scarce.
Precipitation: Drier overall, though Florida, the Intermountain region, and the eastern Desert Southwest may see wetter conditions.
Appalachians and Southeast: Expect a colder-than-normal winter, with heavier snowfall in the southern Appalachians and eastern Southeast. The coldest snaps are likely from December through early February.
Florida: Cooler and wetter than usual, with above-normal rainfall and a chance for early tropical activity in November.
Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley: The Lower Lakes -- Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland -- should see a milder, drier winter, though lake-effect snow is still possible. The Ohio Valley will experience colder temperatures, accompanied by heavier snowfall, especially in the eastern regions.
Deep South and Heartland: Warmer-than-normal overall, with below-average precipitation. Snow chances will be limited to northern areas, mainly in January and February.
Upper Midwest and High Plains: Milder than usual, but cold and snow will arrive in bursts. The Upper Midwest will generally see lighter snowfall, while the High Plains could face late-winter snow surges.
Texas and Oklahoma: Look for a warmer, drier winter with occasional cold snaps and a chance for early snow in November.
Intermountain West and Desert Southwest: The Intermountain region should be slightly wetter than average, with more snow in the south. The Desert Southwest will be warmer, but wetter in eastern parts, bringing more snow to higher elevations.
Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest: Both regions are expected to trend warmer and drier. The Northwest can expect below-normal snowfall, while California will see less mountain snow but the chance of late-season storms.
The Almanac bases its forecasts on a formula developed by founder Robert B. Thomas, who believed that sunspots affect the weather. This method has been updated with "modern science and technology," blending solar science, climatology, and meteorology to compare solar patterns and historical weather with current conditions.
While the Almanac admits no forecast is perfect, it maintains its predictions often approach its traditional claim of 80 percent accuracy.