Rapid Reads News

HOMEcorporatetechentertainmentresearchmiscwellnessathletics

How surging wages and record tax rises threaten to reignite inflation


How surging wages and record tax rises threaten to reignite inflation

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, effectively declared victory over eurozone inflation on Monday saying: "The darkest days of winter look to be behind us."

However, those expecting to hear a similar sentiment from Andrew Bailey later this week when the Bank of England delivers its final interest rate decision of the year are likely to be disappointed.

After briefly falling below the Bank's 2pc target in September, inflation rose back to 2.3pc in October.

Now, fresh wage growth data suggest it could rise again.

Official data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday showed that wage growth is still too high to be consistent with inflation at 2pc.

The Bank of England's preferred measure of pay shows wage growth in the private sector rose to 5.4pc in three months to October compared with a year earlier. This was an increase from 4.9pc in the three months to September.

Analysts had expected wage growth to gradually lose momentum, rather than accelerate. Public sector pay growth is now slowing but is still high. Wages grew by 4.3pc over the period, a slight slowdown from 4.7pc.

Overall, pay growth and bonuses for all workers jumped to 5.2pc from 4.4pc on average.

Wage growth was 2.2pc after accounting for inflation, accelerating from 1.5pc at the last reading.

While families who have suffered surging prices on everything from olive oil to butter and fuel in recent years will welcome real wage growth, policymakers are getting anxious.

Rapidly growing wages at a time of stagnating growth and low productivity suggest businesses may start to raise prices again to cover for their higher wage bills.

"The latest UK jobs report provides yet more justification, if any were needed, for the Bank to keep rates on hold at its meeting this week. It will heighten suspicion among BoE hawks that wage growth is not going to readily come back down to pre-Covid levels," says James Smith at ING.

The hot wage growth figures will put policymakers on edge after they warned that Reeves's Budget risked fuelling inflation.

A recent survey by the Bank found that more than half of British businesses expect to put up prices and cut jobs to cope with the costs of the Chancellor's National Insurance raid.

"With wage inflation already a gnawing problem for the Bank of England, policies unveiled in the Budget add to the angst," says Rob Morgan, the chief investment analyst at Charles Stanley.

The national living wage is also poised to jump by 6.7pc to £12.21 an hour in April, adding another pressure that could prove inflationary.

Previous articleNext article

POPULAR CATEGORY

corporate

3686

tech

3917

entertainment

4499

research

2067

misc

4592

wellness

3686

athletics

4587