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How likely a white Christmas is for UK this year - Liverpool Echo

By Courtney Eales

How likely a white Christmas is for UK this year - Liverpool Echo

The Met Office will have a clearer idea the week before December 25

Christmas Day will soon be upon us and many of us will be travelling to friends and families houses over the festive period. As it can often change, it is useful to keep an eye on the weather forecast to see what conditions you may have to work with if you drive.

In the Met Office's long term forecast for the UK, covering the period between December 16 and December 30, it said: "There is a greater chance of spells of high pressure during this period, bringing more in the way of dry weather compared to the unsettled patterns we are likely to see through the first couple of weeks of December, which also increases the chances of overnight fog and frost.

"There will probably still be some spells of rain, showers, and stronger winds though, especially in the west. Hill snow is also a possibility, mainly in the north.

"Overall, near or slightly above average temperatures are most likely, though some colder spells are also possible, especially should any prolonged settled spells develop."

However, it's not until the week before Christmas that forecasters usually start to have a clear idea about the chances of seeing any snow. In most parts of the country, Christmas falls at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow.

The Met Office said: "We are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December, with snow actually settling on the ground (snow lying) an average of 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (1991 - 2020 long-term averaging period)."

White Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752 which effectively brought Christmas Day back by twelve days. Forecasters say that climate change has also brought higher average temperatures over land and sea and this generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas.

For the Met Office to declare a "white Christmas", a single snowflake has to be observed falling on the 24 hours of December 25, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station.

The Met Office can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand.

Last month, there was snow across parts of the UK, with as much as 25cm of snowfall and an amber weather warning on Thursday in some regions. Weather warnings continued into this week, with rain warnings covering much of the country.

Weather warnings had been issued by the Met Office for parts of the UK yesterday. An amber warning for rain was in force for much of south Wales on December 1.

Yellow weather warnings for rain were issued for southwest and northwest of England, central and northern parts of Wales, as well as southwest Scotland.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the Met Office said: "Beyond Monday's disruptive weather for many, a changeable week of weather is on the cards for many, with low pressure continuing to influence the forecast through much of the period and a mixture of rain, showers and some sunny spells at times."

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