CEBU, Philippines -- A weaker, shorter La Niña may be unfolding across the Pacific. However, weather experts warn that Cebu and the rest of the country should still brace for wetter-than-usual months ahead as the phenomenon continues to influence rainfall patterns until early 2026.
The ongoing La Niña episode is classified as "short-lived" because of both its lower intensity and its expected duration, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Mactan's update on Saturday, December 6.
Engineer Al Quiblat, chief of Pagasa Mactan, further explained the phenomena:
"Short-lived in the sense that it is a weak La Niña tapos iyang duration nga posible nga period niya is up to February 2026. Short-lived siya kay usually 6 to 8 months man ang La Niña."
READ: Weak La Niña seen to bring above-normal rains in Dec. 2025 - Feb. 2026
Despite this, Quiblat cautioned that its impacts remain significant.
"Dili gihapon kompyansahan kay ang epekto sa La Niña. Sa Pilipinas mas init ang kadagatan compared to the normal so naa gyud na. Chances is high nga months up to February will be above normal rainfall condition."
Quiblat said Cebu can expect more frequent rain days than usual amid La Niña, even during months traditionally considered dry:
"Ang number of days with rain mas mudaghan kompara sa normal nato. Say for example sa December, naa tay 7 to 8 days nga naay mag-ulan sa Cebu. So mo-increase na siya, mo above 10."
This trend is expected to extend through January and February.
"Duna pod chances nga imbes ang December, January, February, nahulog naman na siya nga dry months, dili siya totally dry kay mas mudaghan ang mga times sa pag-ulan, mas intense ang pag-ulan kompara sa without La Niña," Quiblat noted.
While La Niña usually coincides with increased tropical cyclone activity in the country, its current weak state may slightly alter typical patterns.
Quiblat said storm frequencies for the season may shift, with lower chances in some months but with possible upticks due to La Niña's influence:
"Ang chances sa atong mga bagyo mo-less naman ang frequency. For the month of December, one or two, naa naman si Wilma -- mag-paabot nalang ta ug usa pa. Pero sa January to February, mga zero to one ra man na, but naa'y chances nga madagdagan na nga imbes zero to one, mahimo na siyang one to two because of the presence of La Niña."
READ: PAGASA sees La Niña by late 2025, warns of stronger storms
Pagasa officially declares La Niña
In its La Niña Advisory No. 1 issued on December 4, Pagasa confirmed that a weak La Niña has developed based on oceanic and atmospheric observations.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific began to cool in September and reached the La Niña threshold in November.
The agency said La Niña is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2026, consistent with international climate models.
La Niña typically brings above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country during the last quarter of the year and the early months that follow -- conditions that heighten the risk of floods, flash floods, and rain-triggered landslides.
Pagasa likewise reported a higher chance of tropical cyclone activity inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during this season.
What residents should prepare for
With a short-lived yet impactful La Niña now in effect, Pagasa urges the public and local disaster offices to remain alert for potential hazards associated with prolonged wet conditions.
Communities in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas are advised to prepare early, while local governments are encouraged to closely monitor advisories and maintain readiness for weather-related emergencies.