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Tropical Storm Gabrielle expected to strengthen into hurricane. What can Florida expect?

By Treasure Coast

Tropical Storm Gabrielle expected to strengthen into hurricane. What can Florida expect?

Forecasters aren't expecting Gabrielle to have any direct impacts on the U.S., but it's the first named storm in the Atlantic in nearly three weeks.

* Wind shear and dry air are preventing Tropical Storm Gabrielle from strengthening.

* Conditions are expected to change later this weekend or early next week and Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane.

* Current forecasts predict Gabrielle will curve north and stay away from Florida and the U.S.

* See what impacts we could see, even if Gabrielle stays away from the U.S.

Forecasters continue to predict Tropical Storm Gabrielle will become the season's second hurricane but on Thursday, Sept. 18, it was struggling.

As expected, Gabrielle is running into wind shear and dry air, both of which are preventing the storm from strengthening. Environmental conditions are expected to remain "hostile" for development for a couple more days and Gabrielle will either "hold steady or lose strength," according to the National Hurricane Center.

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By late this weekend or early next week, though, conditions are expected to favor Gabrielle, which is expected to become more symmetrical and strengthen into a hurricane.

Gabrielle is the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and the first tropical storm since Tropical Storm Fernand formed Aug. 23.

If it does become a hurricane, it will be only the second hurricane of the season.

Erin became the season's first hurricane more than a month ago, on Aug. 15, and rapidly intensified into a major hurricane with peak winds hitting 160 mph the next day.

Highlights on what Tropical Storm Gabrielle is doing now

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

* Location: 755 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands; 1,846 miles east of West Palm Beach

* Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph

* Movement: west-northwest at 15 mph

* Pressure: 1,004 mb

Tropical Storm Gabrielle expected to strengthen into hurricane

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 51.7 West.

Gabrielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed by a northwestward turn this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph, with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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See map of current watches, warnings in Florida

No watches or warnings associated with the tropical depression have been issued in Florida or the U.S.

How strong is Tropical Storm Gabrielle and where is it going?

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Gabrielle going and how strong could it get?

* As of 11 a.m.: 50 mph

* 12 hours: 45 mph

* 24 hours: 45 mph

* 36 hours: 45 mph

* 48 hours: 45 mph

* 60 hours: 50 mph

* 72 hours: 60 mph

* 96 hours: 80 mph

* 120 hours: 90 mph

What impact could Tropical Storm Gabrielle have? Could Florida, US feel any impacts?

That's unknown at this time, although current forecasts continue to predict Gabrielle will curve north in the Atlantic and stay away from Florida and the United States.

Gabrielle "isn't the most picturesque tropical storm on satellite this afternoon by any stretch as it battles against dry and dusty air," said Fox Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver via email Sept. 17.

"However, conditions will become increasingly favorable for intensification and Gabrielle is forecast to be a hurricane somewhere near or east of Bermuda early next week."

"I think that if the storm is able to strengthen into a hurricane, which we currently have projected, we could see some beach issues next week, middle to end of next week, along the east coast. And that's anywhere from Florida all the way up to New England," according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email Sept. 17.

"That's something we're going to have to watch for. If the storm stays relatively weak, if it never gets to a hurricane, then we probably won't have any beach hazards, but if it really intensifies north of the Caribbean and becomes a hurricane, we do have to be concerned for some rip current risks along the east coast next week.

"It could be a beautiful sunny day at the beach, but even if there's a hurricane hundreds and hundreds of miles away, we can still see issues from rip currents," DaSilva said.

Residents in Bermuda are advised to watch the system closely.

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This story has been updated to include new information.

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