As Bihar prepares for the assembly election, the state's northeastern region, Seemanchal, with its highly concentrated Muslim population, is again in the limelight. Seemanchal accounts for 24 assembly constituencies and is the state's most backward region, with a 47 % Muslim population, compared to 17.7% of Muslims across Bihar (2011). For decades, Muslims of this region were treated as a homogeneous vote bank, mobilised through religious identity. However, this old narrative hardly reflects the changing socio-political dynamics of the region. Migration-led mobility, caste consciousness, and the emergence of new political actors are transforming Muslims' engagement in the democratic process. The once-dominant politics of identity and vote banks are gradually giving way to the politics of aspiration, rooted in development and representation.
Seemanchal, which consists of Katihar, Kishanganj, Araria, and Purnia districts, has over 90 per cent of its population residing in rural areas and engaged in farming and labouring. Until the 2000s, the region functioned under a semi-feudal system, where land ownership and political power were concentrated in a few hands, keeping the larger rural population trapped in dependency and poverty. In this bleak setting, elections were less a democratic choice and more a ritual of collective obligation. This was further reinforced by religious leaders, who framed elections through a lens of religious identity, urging collective loyalty to 'secular forces' to keep the BJP out of power. However, this narrative is rapidly losing ground. Over the past thirty years, large-scale labour migration has transformed the socio-economic foundations of the region.
It brought economic stability, weakened feudal control, enabled economic mobility, and nurtured a new political consciousness. What began as a distress migration evolved into migration as a political agency, empowering communities to reimagine their political role as active citizens, seeking development, accountability, and representation. Political loyalty is no longer inherited. Voters actively evaluate candidates based on their performance, delivery, and responsiveness to local needs rather than their party symbol or religious identity. This shift marked a critical transformation from identity-based voting to aspiration-driven politics.
Nearly 28% of Bihar's 2.31 crore Muslim population resides in the Seemanchal region. According to the Bihar Caste Census (2023), Surjapuris constitute the third largest Muslim caste group in the state, with approximately 24.5 lakh people, followed by Shershabadis with around 13 lakh, and Kulhaiyas with 12.5 lakh. Surjapuri mainly lives in the Kishanganj and Purnia districts. Araria is dominated by Kulhaiya, with a considerable population living in Purnia. Shershahbadi primarily live in Katihar, with a significant presence in Kishanganj. These three caste groups differ culturally, practice endogamy, and speak different dialects. Thus, caste consciousness among them is not new, given their distinct cultural and linguistic identities, but they were not central to political mobilisation until the 2000s. This shift began around 1990 as a ripple effect of caste consciousness among Hindu OBCs following the Mandal Commission and the increasing realisation among Muslim caste groups that identity-based politics often sidelined their specific socio-economic interests. Local leaders from these caste groups began advocating for reservations and political representation, laying the groundwork for caste-based mobilisation within the community.
This consciousness became electorally visible in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, when Maulana Asrarul Haque Qasmi, a Surjapuri, won from the Kishanganj constituency - a victory that came 24 years after his first unsuccessful attempt in 1985. His eventual success was made possible by the collective mobilisation of Surjapuri Muslims, who rallied behind him to challenge the dominance of Mohammad Taslimuddin, the Kulhaiya leader. To avoid splitting the Surjapuri vote, Akhtarul Iman, then representing JD(U), withdrew his candidacy a few days before the election to ensure unified support for a Surjapuri representative. Since then, Surjapuris have largely retained electoral control over Kishanganj. Similarly, Mohammad Taslimuddin shifted his political base to neighbouring Araria, a constituency with a dominant Kulhaiya population, and his family has held political sway there since 2014. In contrast, Katihar has not seen representation from its local Muslim castes, as Tarique Anwar, a Syed from Arwal, has held the seat for nearly five decades, although the local 'Shershabadi' caste is represented at the legislative level.
In this environment of growing caste, it is now almost impossible for a Surjapuri in a Surjapuri-dominated constituency to vote for a non-Surjaouri. Similarly, Kulhaiya- or Shershabadi-dominated seats tend to elect candidates from within their caste group. Political parties have also recognised the significance of caste consciousness, which is clearly reflected in the distribution of electoral tickets. The INDIA alliance nominated 13 Muslim candidates across regional assembly seats, of which six are Surjapuri, three are Kulhaiya, two are Shershabadi, and one is from the upper caste Khan. However, the background of one candidate could not be determined. This strategic ticket distribution underscores that electoral success hinges on caste alignment and local representation, rather than a unified Muslim identity.
As caste consciousness deepened and aspirations evolved, voters in Seemanchal began to look beyond traditional parties, paving the way for new political alternatives that challenged decades of vote bank politics. Traditional secular parties such as RJD and Congress, or their alliance, often used identity and insecurity to mobilise Muslim votes to counter the BJP. However, this pattern has begun to fade since the last decade, particularly with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) entry in the 2015 assembly election, followed by its unprecedented victory in five seats in 2020. The rise of AIMIM directly challenged the dominance of traditional parties and transformed electoral discourse around development, representation, and accountability. Its presence compelled established secular parties to re-engage with their constituencies, visit flood-affected areas more frequently, promise better infrastructure, and engage local voters.
This shift has further intensified with the emergence of Jan Suraaj, led by Prashant Kishor, who has strategically positioned himself as a grassroots alternative to conventional politics. A key figure for the party in Seemanchal is Sarfaraz Alam, son of veteran RJD leader Mohammad Taslimuddin and a former RJD MP, who is contesting from Jokihat against his own brother and sitting RJD MLA, Shanawaz Alam. This contest reflects a major realignment of political loyalty within Muslim leadership in the region.
Together, these developments signal a changing political dynamic in the region that is no longer shaped by a homogeneous Muslim vote bank, but by a politically awakened and aspirational electorate redefining the terms of democratic participation.