See my best Ravens vs Bills picks and props to target, plus the BAL/BUF closing odds for SNF
The marquee game of the Week 1 features the Buffalo Bills (13-4 SU, 8-0 home, 12-8 ATS, 12-7-1 O/U) hosting the Baltimore Ravens (12-5 SU, 6-3 away, 11-7-1 ATS, 13-5-1 O/U in 2024) at Orchard Park, the third meeting between the two AFC heavyweights in the last calendar year.
After splitting their two meetings last year - Baltimore running away with a 35-10 win at home in Week 4 and Buffalo answering back with a 27-25 home victory in the divisional playoffs - the Ravens and Bills find themselves in a near pick'em in the Sunday Night Football odds. Buffalo opened as a -120 moneyline favorite but money has poured in on the Ravens, flipping the line and-then-some.
Go to: Picks | Closing Odds | Public-Betting Splits
This matchup is a clash of styles and strengths, but home-field advantage is apt to be the difference. The Bills have been nearly unbeatable at Highmark Stadium, winning their last ten games in front of the Bills Mafia. That crowd noise, especially in a primetime Week 1 game, is a significant factor that can and usually does disrupt the opposing offense's communication.
While the Ravens' ground game with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is terrifying, the Bills' defense, led by Matt Milano, is built to contain mobile quarterbacks and physical running backs.
Offensively, Josh Allen thrives in these big-game environments. Even against Baltimore's aggressive, blitz-heavy defense, Allen's ability to extend plays with his legs and deliver off-platform throws gives Buffalo an edge. The line movement towards Baltimore is noteworthy, but it's an overreaction to the Ravens' revenge narrative. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, and I expect that trend to continue.
The head-to-head history heavily favors a low-scoring, defensive battle. The under has cashed in the last five meetings between these teams, a trend that is too strong to ignore, especially with 15+ mph winds in the forecast. The total of 50.5 points is simply too high for a matchup between two physical, well-coached defenses.
FanDuel currently has Allen's rushing total at just 31.5 with -113 odds each way. Most books have him two yards higher (33.5 O/U) with shorter odds on the over, so FanDuel is by far the best option to wager on Allen to hit the over.
The Bills are now as long as +110 on the moneyline at ESPN Bet, while the best ML price for a Baltimore win is -118 at FanDuel. Against the spread, bettors can get Ravens -1.0 (-110) at Caesars; Buffalo backers should take +1.5 (-105), which is only available at ESPN currently.
The game total shows a half-point range. Almost every book has the total at 50.5, most with -110 odds each way. But BetMGM has raised it half a point to 51 (O -110 | U -110), making it the best option for under bettors.
The current vig-free moneyline odds give the Ravens a 52.2% implied win probability, with the Bills getting the remaining 47.8%.
Odds as of 5:15 pm ET, September 7. Sign-up for the top Super Bowl betting sites here.
The betting line for this contest has seen significant movement. The market opened with the Bills as 1.5-point home favorites, but a wave of money on the Ravens flipped the script, moving the line a full three points to make Baltimore 1.5-point chalk.
The total has also seen some action, opening at 51.5 and ticking down to 50.5 at most books. This downward movement is likely attributable to two factors: the aforementioned historical trend of low-scoring games between these defensive-minded teams and the weather forecast, which calls for potentially gusty winds that could hamper deep passing attacks and long field goals.
The NFL public betting trends indicate a classic split between the public and professional bettors. Early wagering saw heavy public support for the Bills as home favorites, but as the week progressed, significant sharp money came in on the Ravens, causing the line to flip across the market.