A Look at the Minnesota Vikings Offensive Line and How It Can Improve.
This story is an entry into the Daily Norseman's contest for joining the writing staff.
Wars are won in the trenches. Championships are won when one team can exert their will over the other. When they strike fear into their opponents through sheer determination and power. That is what we saw in this past Sunday's Super Bowl. Much like the Great Eagles in the Battle of Morannon helping to defeat the Nazgul of Mordor, the Eagles of Philadelphia prevailed victorious over the dark power of Patrick Mahomes and his quest to lord over yet another Super Bowl ring. In my article Good Grief: A Memoir of a Vikings Fan, I talked about how the Vikings have all of the ancillary pieces but are missing the big meanies that set the tone for the offense and defense, which sets the agenda for Minnesota's free agency strategy.
This article will focus on the offensive line. I will reflect on the 2024 season and look ahead to decisions Kwesi Adofo Mensah has to make in the coming weeks and months. Full disclosure: the stats I am using for this article come from Pro Football Focus and should be taken with a grain of salt. If you are unaware of how PFF grades players, it is based on each play and how each individual player affects those plays. For offensive lineman specifically, they assign overall, pass blocking, and run blocking grades. Each metric is then given a number that represents a range of grades from below average to elite. Keep in mind, there are only 32 teams in the NFL, meaning there are 32 starting centers, 64 starting guards, and 64 starting tackles. PFF does not distinguish between left guard or right guard and the same goes for tackles. The grades also include more than just full season starting players. There are grades for 141 tackles, 135 guards, and 64 centers. Not every player plays the same number of snaps, which makes these metrics far from perfect. With those caveats in mind, let's take a look at the 2024 Minnesota Vikings offensive line.
Starting off on a positive note, the Minnesota Vikings have Christian Darrisaw on the roster. He ended the season graded as the 11th best overall tackle in the NFL and likely as a top 5 left tackle. Look for his true return to form, after recovery, to come in the twilight of the 2025 season. Another positive from this season was seeing four different offensive linemen play at least 1000 snaps (I will count Cam Robinson even though he only played 999). Speaking of Christian Darrisaw's replacement, Robinson filled in admirably this season for the former first round draft pick. For the 2024 season, Cam Robinson graded as above average overall (56th), slightly below average in run blocking (75th), and above average in pass blocking respectively (49th). However, he allowed 50 pressures, which is 140th out of 141, 7 sacks, and 7 hits both landing him at 127th for NFL tackles. He also committed 13 penalties, which puts him in the bottom 10 for that category as well. There are likely a few explanations for the disparity between his grade and statistics. One could be that Sam Darnold's average time to throw, according to NFL Next Gen stats, was 3rd longest in the NFL, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Although athletic, Darnold does not possess the skill of escapability (which is a made-up word) at the level of the two-time regular season MVP or this year's Super Bowl MVP. Another reason for Robinson's discrepancy between PFF rankings and statistics is that he played next to Blake Brandel for his entire Vikings tenure.
Blake Brandel played 1117 snaps in 2024. He ranked 74th pass blocking (slightly below average) and 89th in run blocking (well below average). These rankings likely would have been near the bottom of the NFL without Christian Darrisaw starting alongside him for the first 6 1/2 games of the season. Even with Darrisaw picking up the slack for just over a 3rd of the season, Brandel was not far off from the worst in the league for all guards. Remember, guards include stats for 135 players at the position. The Vikings starting left guard had: 11 penalties (132nd), while allowing 7 sacks (130th), 7 hits (124th) and 41 pressures (133rd). These rankings could very well put him dead last in the entire league for starting left guards.
Like Brandel, Garrett Bradbury played every snap this season. His overall grade ranked him 33rd in the NFL, which would make him the best backup center in the NFL, and is far from ideal. He had one of the worst pass blocking grades (55th out of 64) for a center and a slightly above average run blocking grade (14th). In 2024, Bradbury allowed as many QB pressures as any other center in the league (37), was 61st in hits allowed (6), 58th in sacks allowed (4) and 51st in penalties (6). Now, this isn't necessarily as bad as it looks as not every center played as many snaps this season and PFF does not take number of snaps into account with these stats. However, when assessing the numbers for Bradbury in 2024, in the words of Ken Hotate from the sitcom Parks and Rec, "That...is not great." At the end of the day, Bradbury is an athletic and capable blocker in a zone running scheme, with poor pass blocking skills, who could become serviceable with an added benefit of competent guard play.
Dalton Risner played well in 2024, especially in comparison to Ed Ingram. Risner is an above average blocker overall (42nd), who struggles in the run game (95th, Ingram was 86th), but excels as a very good pass blocker (13th), compared to Ingram (96th). Risner only played half of the season, but did not allow a sack and did not commit a penalty. However, he allowed 16 pressures (70th), which is the bottom half of the league. Ingram gave up 24 QB pressures in one fewer game played. Extrapolate these numbers for both players over the full season, and we see that Risner was a massive upgrade over the LSU alumnus.
To end our reflection on another positive note, let's take a look at Brian O'Neill's ranking. The Pitt graduate played 1,100 snaps in 2024. He was graded as a great overall tackle (12th), great pass blocker (12th) and a very good run blocker (21st). He allowed 2 sacks (61st), 0 hits, and 19 pressures (84th). If I had access to premium PFF content, I theorize I would discover that a significant portion of O'Neill's allowed pressures came while playing half of the season next to Ed Ingram, even though we saw the Vikings reach a 5-2 record in that time. If Darrisaw stayed healthy all season, all of the metrics may look different. Regardless, this unit had numerous ups and downs and left a lot to be desired.
As it stands, the Vikings have about $58 million in cap space according to Over the Cap, which could change to about $64 million if Harrison Smith ends up retiring. Dalton Risner is an UFA and, based on his wife's social media posts, probably wants to remain a Minnesota Viking. On an affordable contract, I can see him coming back and competing for a starting spot. Looking at the free agent market, there are many intriguing names at right guard. The highest on the list is Kevin Zeitler, who even at age 35, is one of the best guards in the NFL. However, Detroit has
nearly 50 million in cap space, so the likelihood of him hitting the open market is uncertain.
The big name is Trey Smith. He looked dominant at times throughout the season, but struggled, along with the entire Chiefs team, in the Super Bowl. He is a force in the running game and an above average pass blocker. Unlike Detroit, Kansas City has a tighter cap situation. Smith, likely to be the most sought-after offensive lineman in free agency, could sign with a new team for 2025 and beyond. The question is, will he reset the market? With the rise in the salary cap for all NFL teams this year, they will be able to spend more. If he becomes the highest paid guard in the league, we would be looking at an average annual value north of $21 million per year, and that is on the conservative end of the spectrum. Signing him will likely cost a significant chunk of the cap space. If the Vikings resign Risner, and land Smith, someone has to move. Adding Trey Smith to the left side of the line, next to Darrisaw, who ranks as a better run blocker than O'Neill, would bolster that run game on the weak side. As stated before, Bradbury is proficient in run blocking, and having a presence like Smith on either side of him should elevate his game. However, moving a player from one guard spot to another would require a level of evaluation I don't feel qualified to provide.
Alternatively, let's assume KAM's number one priority is to replace Brandel with a true starting LG. Teven Jenkins is an obvious choice, but it is hard to see the Bears letting their best lineman go. His play could elevate Bradbury, although not quite to the same level as Trey Smith. An economic option would be for Minnesota to sign Evan Brown, a 2024 member of the Arizona Cardinals. The journeyman veteran would be a major upgrade over Brandel and would leave room to add a second lineman in free agency. If Smith is an unrestricted free agent and the Vikings are ready to spend big, Brown would be the perfect complimentary signing to pair up with the All-Pro guard. This would also justify the Vikings waiting until the later rounds to draft an offensive lineman, possibly a center, to compete with Bradbury throughout training camp and potentially into the season.
Kwesi undoubtedly has his priorities in a very specific order this offseason. I want to examine one more hypothetical: what happens if Trey Smith never hits the open market? Let's also sprinkle in how Minnesota can free up some cap space from the offensive line. Releasing Bradbury would net about $1.2 million in cap space for the Vikings. However, releasing Ingram would net around $3 million. Bradbury could be a great asset as a rotational/backup player. I could also see the athletic lineman carving out a significant role with the special teams unit or as a 6th lineman. With that in mind, the Vikings could conceivably turn to Drew Dalman, who would be a huge upgrade at the center position. He only played half the snaps that Bradbury had last season but was graded as the 4th overall center for the time he played. Extrapolated for all 17 games, the 27-year-old Dalman was on pace for 6 penalties, 4 sacks allowed, 2 hits allowed, and 30 total pressures, all massive improvements over Bradbury. Maybe not so ironically, if he makes it to free agency, it is likely thanks to Kirk Cousins' massively bloated contract that currently has Atlanta $8 million in the hole. Dalman would likely garner a long-term contract and solidify the position throughout the entirety of J.J. McCarthy's rookie deal. As an honorable mention, if the Vikings miss out on the Dalman signing, Ryan Kelly would be a suitable two-year option at the center position. I have seen others mention James Daniels and Will Fries as options to solidify the offensive line. For the right price, they could entice the attention of Kwesi Adofo Mensah, but not without hesitation as they are both recovering from major injuries.
I am not ready to speculate on draft picks. Before we can understand that strategy, we need to see what the Minnesota front office does in free agency. I believe the most logical scenario is the one I just laid forth: signing Evan Brown at LG, Drew Dalman at C, bringing Risner back on another one-year deal, and then looking to the draft to create some competition. Alternately, if the Vikings were just a RG away from a top 5 offensive line, I could see a splashy signing of Trey Smith or Kevin Zeitler (that is if either of those players are even available). But, as it stands, the vikings have too many needs and re-signing considerations to give Trey Smith the contract he will likely demand. If my logic prevails, the new look Minnesota Vikings offensive line would be comprised of: LT Christian Darrisaw, LG Evan Brown, C Drew Dalman, RG Dalton Risner, RT Brian O'Neill. On paper, this line would be much more well suited to protect J.J. McCarthy and provide bigger rushing lanes for whomever the Vikings employ at running back in 2025. In my next article, I will use a similar approach to evaluate the options on the other side of the trenches.