Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) spent the first half of the year battling a narrative full of headwinds, regulatory scrutiny, mounting competition in search and advertising, and skepticism about its positioning in AI.
Fast-forward to today, and it's a different story.
The stock has been leading its tech peers in recent weeks and breaking to fresh all-time highs.
What changed?
The answer lies in how those former obstacles have now turned into catalysts and tailwinds.
One of the most powerful shifts in narrative has been Alphabet's emergence as a key infrastructure provider for AI. OpenAI, which was previously reliant almost exclusively on Microsoft Azure, quietly expanded its compute framework to include Google Cloud, a deal that now places Google directly in OpenAI's AI infrastructure stack alongside Oracle, CoreWeave, and Microsoft.
This move was not just strategic; it was necessary. Just a few months earlier, OpenAI had been facing capacity constraints. That real-world demand turned Alphabet from a potential AI laggard into a vital backbone.
Technically, GOOGL's stock tells a story of a clear breakout. After a sluggish start, the stock has gained ground impressively and, in recent weeks, has displayed notable relative strength, rocketing higher. The result? GOOGL is now up more than 23% this quarter and nearly 12% year-to-date, recently closing at a fresh all-time high of $211.64.
This performance stands out sharply from its peers in recent weeks, solidifying Alphabet's return as a market leader. Still, it's not a narrative of excess. Investors want to see a controlled uptrend, not a short-term blow-off top.
The key to sustaining momentum is holding above the psychological and technical pivot point of around $200, which is anchored in the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Relative outperformance compared to other Magnificent Seven names will be a barometer of whether GOOGL can continue to lead across the technology sector.
No victory comes without risk. Alphabet is currently navigating the final chapter of a high-profile antitrust case. In 2024, Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google had violated antitrust law by monopolizing the search market. Since then, remedies have been debated, ranging from divesting the Chrome browser to limiting default search deals with device makers.
According to several online predictions, a ruling on remedies is expected soon, possibly as early as today. Analysts at BMO Capital warn that the stock could swing by up to 10% depending on the severity of the decision.
Prediction markets, however, are already leaning toward less drastic outcomes. Popular prediction markets, such as Kalshi, currently have the odds at 22% for whether Google will be forced to break up this year.
Alphabet's transformation from laggard to leader is anchored in real fundamentals: powering AI infrastructure at scale, delivering operational momentum and an impressive Q2 beat, and clearing technical hurdles. Yet the cloud of regulation still looms large.
While the stock appears positioned for further upside, much depends on how the antitrust ruling is received. Hold $200, outperform peers, and execute on AI infrastructure momentum, and Alphabet may well sustain its leading role heading into year-end.